Abstract

ACEVES NAVARRO, Lorenzo Armando et al. Potential areas and vulnerability of the robust coffee crop (Coffea canephora P.) to climate change in the state of Tabasco, Mexico. Nova scientia [online]. 2018, vol.10, n.20, pp.369-396. ISSN 2007-0705.  https://doi.org/10.21640/ns.v10i20.1379.

The federal government, through the General Direction of Tropical Zones of the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development, Fisheries, and Food (SAGARPA), has fostered the creation of 20,000 ha of Robusta coffee crops in the south-southeast states. As part of this initiative, the present study is done to determine what areas of the state of Tabasco are better suited for this type of coffee to prosper successfully and what the future impacts of climate change mid XXI century would be on its adaptation and yield. Thus, the objective of the present study was to determine the best areas, from the point of view of climate and soil, to grow Robusta coffee (Coffea canephora P.) in the state of Tabasco, as well as its vulnerability to a possible climate change in the middle of the present century. This was done using the Agro-Ecological Zoning methodology (AEZ) proposed by the FAO for the current conditions and for the worst-case scenario of climate change (RCP8.5) expected for mid XXI century. Also, the potential yields for three levels of input (low, medium, and high) were estimated in the areas that resulted to be very apt for both climatic conditions. The results indicate that if there were to be a mean daily increase in temperature of 1.6 ºC by the year 2050, under the worst-case scenario (RCP8.5), the very apt surface to grow Robusta coffee in the state of Tabasco is not modified. However, the mean potential yields would decrease by 41% by the year 2050 due to the effect of the increase in daytime temperatures on the maximum photosynthetic ratio.

Keywords : agro-ecological zoning; very apt areas; potential yield; impact of climate change.

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