Abstract

CERANO PAREDES, Julián et al. Reconstructed droughts in the last 600 years for northeastern Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2011, vol.2, n.spe2, pp.235-249. ISSN 2007-0934.

The generation of paleoclimate series based on dendrochronological techniques, allows the historical analysis of climatic variability. Dendrochronology is an excellent alternative when the instrumental data bases of short extension are available, that limit to historically analyze its variability over time. The aim of this paper was to analyze the climatic variability over the past 600 years in northeastern Mexico, to determine the frequency of extreme hydroclimatic events (droughts) and their impact on society, using as proxy the growth rings of the species Pseudotsuga menziesi and Pinus cembroides. In this paper, paleoclimate series of over 400 years for the northeastern Coahuila and of 600 years for southern Nuevo León were analyzed, there were rebuilt severe droughts that had a significant impact on water availability, agricultural production, damage to livestock and therefore, a socioeconomic impact. Droughts in the northeastern region of Mexico for the period 1400-2004, have a recurrence of 50 years (p< 0.05); but more intense events were observed (p< 0.05) at intervals of 100 years; 1450, 1560, 1660, 1750-1760, 1850-1870 and 1950-1960, the latter with great social and economic impact. The reconstruction of paleoclimate series provide basic information for modeling extreme hydroclimatic events that may occur in the future under different climatic scenarios; information for substantiating technical decisions for the sustainable use of water resources in this region.

Keywords : dendrochronology; reconstruction; droughts; society.