Abstract

MEDINA-GARCIA, Guillermo; RUIZ-CORRAL, José Ariel; RAMIREZ-LEGARRETA, Manuel Rafael  and  DIAZ PADILLA, Gabriel. Effect of climate change on cold accumulation in the apple producing region of Chihuahua. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2011, vol.2, n.spe2, pp.251-263. ISSN 2007-0934.

The apple producing region of Chihuahua is the most important in Mexico, with 40.8% of the planted area; the main grown varieties are Golden Delicious and Red Delicious. Globally it is accepted that the Earth is experiencing a global warming phenomenon and it has been the result of increased concentration of the so-called "greenhouse gases". A retrospective analysis was performed using historical data series for the studied area, for this purpose, temperature anomalies for the period 2011-2060 were used, they were estimated from an ensemble of 10 general circulation models, in order to generate future temperature maps from the 1961-2003 reference climatology. From these temperature maps, chilling units' maps were obtained for five future scenarios. The retrospective analysis showed a significant trend of decreasing cold units during the Winter. Using future scenarios of the cold units' accumulation, the units' average decline was quantified, as well as the decrease of the surface with greater accumulation of cold and increased areas of low cold accumulation in the apple producer region. These results demonstrate the impact of regional climate variability on the development of apple trees in recent decades, indicating the need for adaptation measures. In this regard, it is suggested the application of cold compensators, switching to varieties with lower chilling requirements and to move plantations to areas with greater accumulation of cold.

Keywords : apple trees; Chihuahua; cold units; global warming.

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