Abstract

OROZCO DE ROSAS, Guillermo et al. Projections of climate change and productive potential for Salvia hispanica L. in agricultural areas of Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2014, vol.5, n.spe10, pp.1831-1842. ISSN 2007-0934.

The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of climate change for the period 2040-2069, in the potential areas for the production of S. hispanica L., in three altitudinal strata in agricultural areas of Mexico: 0-1 200 m (lowland), 1 200-2 200 m (average elevation lands) and >2 200 m (highlands). Topographic variables, soil and climate were used to represent potential areas. Data for the period 1961 1990 (climatology of reference) and from 2040 to 2069, climatic data were obtained from the portal WorldClim Earth System Grid and worked with 2.5 min resolution with raster images with Idrisi Selva software. For the 2040-2069, three General Circulation Models (GCM) were considered: ECHAM5, MIROC (Medres) and UKMO_HADCM3, under the emission scenario of greenhouse gases A2. The results showed that, with the expected climatic changes the optimum surface for S. hispánica L., will increase in the highlands between 1 432 and 1 733%, in intermediate elevation lands at a rate of43-58% and will decrease from 84 to 73% in the lowlands. Regarding the suboptimal surface, a decreased in lands at intermediate elevation is forecast, at the rate of 14-21 % and an increase of60-85% in the lowlands and from 101 to 126% in the highlands.

Keywords : Salvia hispanica L.; climate change; climate change and elevation zones.