Abstract

RUIZ CORRAL, José Ariel et al. Climate Change in Mexico and potential distribution of racial groups conical maize. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2014, vol.5, n.spe10, pp.1871-1883. ISSN 2007-0934.

The aim of this study was to evalúate the effect of climate change forthe period2041-2060 on potential niche distribution of Mexican conical maize races. To do so, information from 9 823 georeferenced entries, corresponding to 12 races ofthis racial group was used.An information system with 20 climatic and topographic variables was generated for Mexico, based on climatologies from 1961-1990 and 2041-2060, for which were used images from the portal Earth System Grid (ESG) WorldClim imported into the Idrisi Selva system as images in raster format with a resolution of 2.5 arcmin. For the period 2041-2060 the general circulation model HadGEM2-AO and MIROC5 under two concentration pathways of greenhouse gases (GHG) (rcp4.5 and rcp6.0) were considered. Based on this information system the potential niche distribution of conical maize racial group was modeled by Maxent model. The results showed that climate change for the period 2041-2060 will increase the surface with high environmental suitability for distribution of conical maize racial group. In this regard, is more favorable the outcome that would occur under the path rcp4.5 than under the path rcp6.0 ofGHG emissions and concentration. However, a differential effect of climate change on the races that make up the Conical group was identified, concluding that races that mostly benefit from climate change 2041-2060 will be, Mushito from Michoacan, Negrito and Conical, while the most adversely affected in their distribution potential will be Chalqueño, Conical Northern and Mushito.

Keywords : climate change; conical racial group; maize races; niche distribution.