Abstract

BRAMBILA PAZ, José de Jesús; MARTINEZ DAMIAN, Miguel Ángel; ROJAS ROJAS, María Magdalena  and  PEREZ CERECEDO, Verónica. Measurement of technological effort necessary to increase the yield of agricultural products in Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2015, vol.6, n.4, pp.841-854. ISSN 2007-0934.

The demand for food will increase globally basically because the population will continue to grow to 9 billion people by 2050 and, food prices tend to fall in the long run. In addition, food production will be subject to new restrictions: the agricultural frontier and livestock herds must reduce its ecological impact and water use must be efficient. The objective was to compare the dynamic trend yields selected to Mexico with the yield that would be needed in 2025 to meet the demand for food without increasing the agricultural frontier or the herd while keeping import/export ratio consumption and agricultural products/production. The dynamic trend in yields was estimated with the second difference equations, linear, inhomogeneous and, moving equilibrium. The required yield and production for 2025 is estimated by exponential demand equation expressed in continuous growth rates adjusting the proportions of imports/consumption and exports/production. Of the selected products proved that bean (Phaseolus vulgaris), wheat (Triticum spp.) and lemon (Citrus limon) should increase their yield 30% above trend; milk and eggs should increase 15-30%; avocado (Persea americana) of 2-12% and only the potato (Solanum tuberosum) presented tendency of most the required yield. This allows identify which genetic products is a priority to efforts to increase yield above the trend.

Keywords : Citrus limon; Persea americana; Phaseolus vulgaris; Solanum tuberosum; Triticum spp.; yield required.