Abstract

GRAGEDA GRAGEDA, José et al. Effect of climate change on the accumulation of cold hours in the pecan region from Hermosillo, Sonora. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2016, vol.7, n.spe13, pp.2487-2495. ISSN 2007-0934.

Global warming is evident, as shown by the increases in global average air temperature and from the ocean. Crops can be favored by increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, but the increase in temperature will affect the development of deciduous fruit trees such as pecan (Carya illinoinensis K. Koch), which require an accumulation of cold to break the dormancy period. For the pecan area from Hermosillo, Sonora, current weather maps and future scenarios (2030, 2050 and 2070) for representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 were obtained. There is a strong increase in average temperature between December and January (+2°C) even from the scenario in 2030 with RCP 4.5 (stable), along with a decrease in cold hours accumulated during this period 100 HF, so that in the future should generate pecan cultivars with low cold requirement or to displace pecan orchards to regions with more accumulation, in order to maintain sustainable productivity of this crop.

Keywords : cold hours; pecan; temperature.