Abstract

DURAN PUGA, Noé et al. Impacts of climate change in potential distribution of Morus alba L. in Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2016, vol.7, n.spe13, pp.2511-2521. ISSN 2007-0934.

The aim of the study was to estimate the impact of climate change in potential distribution of Morus alba L. in Mexico. Distribution niches with Maximum Entropy (Maxent) for climatologies ~1950-2000 (reference climatology), 2041-2060 and 2061-2080, with two-way representative greenhouse gas concentrations (Rcp4.5 and RCP8.5) were modeled. 21 bioclimatic variables and two topographic variables were used; this information was obtained from the Global Climate Data portal World Clim and was managed with raster images and ascii 2.5 arcmin. The general circulation model (GCM) was considered: HadGEM2- ES. The results showed that environmental variables that contribute most to explain the geographical distribution of M. alba are the precipitation from the most humid month (September) and the average temperature of the coldest month (January). The logistics threshold from the 20th percentile assumes for reference climatology 80.8% of environmental fitness area of M. alba in the total area of Mexico. The prediction of climate change scenarios reports environmental retraction areas for three scenarios studied; giving a total of 80.66, 79.14 and 80.67 on scenario 2041-2060 rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 and scenario 2061-2080 rcp8.5 respectively; for scenario 2061-2080 rcp4.5 records an expansion to 82.28 in national area. Therefore climate change forecast a retraction on areas with environmental fitness of M. alba, for the period 2041-2060 and for the period 2061-2080 just with Rcp8.5.

Keywords : Morus alba; climate change; niche distribution; subtropical; tropical forage shrubs.