Abstract

ESPINOSA TRUJILLO, Edgar et al. Potential geographical distribution of papaya wild cultivated in Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2018, vol.9, n.7, pp.1377-1388.  Epub Sep 30, 2020. ISSN 2007-0934.  https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v9i7.550.

The wild populations of papaya (Carica papaya L.) integrate a biological resource for the genetic improvement of the species. The prediction of the geographical distribution of wild and cultivated populations is a useful tool to determine collection sites for their use and conservation. With the objective of estimating the potential distribution of papaya in Mexico, a database with geo-reference information of wild and cultivated papaya individuals was elaborated, then the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) was applied with 22 bioclimatic variables as predictors. The total area of potential distribution of the wild specimens was 114 546.5 km2, the high potential areas were located in the Gulf of Mexico (south of Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche) and on the coast of Chiapas. The cultivated papaya presented a high potential distribution in three zones: south of Veracruz, coast of Chiapas and north of Guerrero, forming 185 396.9 km2. The variables that contributed most in the model to estimate the potential distribution of wild papaya were: average minimum temperature of the coldest period (33%), average annual temperature (20%) and soil moisture regime (13%), for the distribution of cultivars the most important variables were: average minimum temperature of the coldest period (41%), rainiest semester precipitation (19%) and annual precipitation (11%). The environmental factors temperature and rainfall, were common in the prediction of distribution of both types of papaya in Mexico.

Keywords : maxent; phytogenetic resource; potential distribution.