Abstract

MARTINEZ-DAMIAN, Miguel Ángel  and  BRAMBILA-PAZ, José de Jesús. Modeling of nominal vs real price predictors applied to corn, wheat and barley in Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2023, vol.14, n.2, pp.295-301.  Epub June 19, 2023. ISSN 2007-0934.  https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v14i2.2933.

In agricultural production, the lag in time between the time resources are allocated and resources are obtained makes it necessary to generate a prediction at time t (sowing), of the current price in t + j (sale). However, in the presence of inflation, the decision maker may choose to make a prediction in nominal terms or discount such inflation. With monthly prices, under a time series approach and after fitting an IMA (1, 1) model, this dilemma was studied for the case of corn, wheat and barley in Mexico. After comparing six goodness-of-fit criteria for each prediction alternative in each crop for the analyzed period 2002 to 2019, it is found that the use of nominal or real data is indifferent in the construction of the price predictor.

Keywords : arima model; goodness of fit; unit root.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in English | Spanish     · English ( pdf ) | Spanish ( pdf )