Abstract

MARTINEZ-SANCHEZ, Julio Nemorio et al. Comparison of climatic databases in modeling the potential distribution of Pinus cembroides Zucc. Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales [online]. 2023, vol.14, n.79, pp.135-158.  Epub Oct 06, 2023. ISSN 2007-1132.  https://doi.org/10.29298/rmcf.v14i79.1350.

The potential distribution of Pinus cembroides populations depends on the spatial and temporal variability of the temperature and precipitation. Given the increase in the availability of different climatic databases in the last decades, the objective of the present study was to evaluate the effect of their spatial and temporal variability on the modeling of the potential distribution of P. cembroides. The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm was used to obtain the potential distribution of P. cembroides from the records of the National Forest and Soil Inventory and the National Biodiversity Information System with data from four sources of climatic information. Despite differences in spatial resolution, four reliable models were obtained with AUC values close to 0.8. The distribution of P. cembroides is limited by the mean temperature of the wettest (Bio 8) and driest (Bio 9) quarters. The WorldClim v2.1 and SCM models presented a higher correlation between the distribution of P. cembroides and the selected bioclimatic variables. In all four models, the species recorded a higher probability of occurrence (>70 %) in the Eastern and Western Sierras Madre. It is concluded that databases with a spatial resolution of at least 15 km2 are necessary for distribution studies of P. cembroides. The type of research should be considered a first step in the planning and development of management and conservation strategies for the species.

Keywords : Climate data; species distribution; maximum entropy; distribution models; Pinus cembroides Zucc.; bioclimatic variables.