Abstract

RICCARDI, Gerardo et al. Application of a hydrological-hydraulic model for real-time water level forecasts. Tecnol. cienc. agua [online]. 2013, vol.4, n.1, pp.83-105. ISSN 2007-2422.

The application of a hydrological-hydraulic model to generate real-time water level forecasts is described. The model is physically based and spatially-distributed, simulating rainfall-flow processes and surface runoff propagation in a quasi-2D form in rural and urban environments. The application was performed in the flat basin of the Ludueña Creek (Santa Fe, Argentina). The model was constituted, calibrated and validated in the year 2008, and was later used during 13 rainy events to generate real-time forecasts of water levels, flows and runoff and storage volumes in locations characteristic of the spatial domain. The results indicate an acceptable degree of representation of surface runoff in the closed basin, where the average of the absolute values for percentage error between maximum observed and calculated levels is 10.8% and 20 % in terms of flows and volumes, respectively. In addition, acceptable results have been reached for reproducing the general shape of flood waves as well as forecasting water levels remaining at previously established alert thresholds.

Keywords : physical modeling; hydrological alert; level forecasting.