Abstract

CAMPOS-ARANDA, Daniel Francisco. Estimate of the Magnitudes of Ruptures of Earth or Rockfill Dams using a Statistical Method. Tecnol. cienc. agua [online]. 2014, vol.5, n.3, pp.159-172. ISSN 2007-2422.

Studies of dam safety define emergency plans and strategies to mitigate risks in underwater areas. These studies involve the estimate of the magnitudes of dam ruptures, which include the geometry of the failure breach, the time it took to develop and peak discharge flow. Three approaches to estimating these characteristics exist: (1) the statistical method which applies empirical equations obtained through regression, (2) the hydraulic method which numerically simulates the development of the failure breach, taking into account hydraulic mechanisms and flow erosion and (3) the experimental method or laboratory method which uses models at reduced or actual scale. This work applies the statistical approach based on 28 empirical equations which have been established as most reliable or having the least uncertainty. Two hypothetical numerical applications are described- the first for a small dam with failure due to overtopping and the second for a dam of medium height which failed due to internal erosion that caused filtrations. Both applications follow two analytical approaches depending on the available information. It is concluded that the collection of the 28 empirical equations makes it possible to establish the probable values for the magnitudes associated with the failure of earth or rockfill dams, as well as variation intervals.

Keywords : Earth dam; rockfill dam; overtopping; piping; failure breach; time to develop breach; peak discharge flow.