Abstract

VEJA-SERRATOS, Beatriz Edith; DOMINGUEZ-MORA, Ramón  and  POSADA-VANEGAS, Gregorio. Seasonal flood risk assessment in agricultural areas. Tecnol. cienc. agua [online]. 2018, vol.9, n.3, pp.92-127.  Epub Nov 24, 2020. ISSN 2007-2422.  https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2018-03-04.

The agricultural sector in Mexico is exposed to various hydrometeorological risks, the negative effects of which can reach disastrous proportions, causing significant financial loss to producers and the family economy due to the partial or total loss of the investment and the reduction in income from the sale of crops by farmers. These disasters can also damage the regional and national economy by interrupting the production cycle, reducing income, and creating unemployment and food shortages, among others. This study presents a method that evaluates the risk due to flooding in agricultural areas. The method proposed uses a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to obtain the parameters of the natural hazard, including the depth, duration, and velocity of the flood. Damage curves were constructed from data obtained by administered surveys to scientific, technical, and farming personnel, supplemented with bibliographic information. These curves considered the various stages of the vegetative crop cycle in such a way that by relating them to the probability estimate of an extreme flow occurring each month of the year, it was possible to calculate the expected damage associated with each magnitude of the extreme flows. The study area corresponds to the Champoton River basin in the state of Campeche, Mexico, where the duration of floods, which are slow, is more important than the velocity of the water.

Keywords : River flooding; hydrodynamic modelling; damage functions for crops; agricultural damage; flood seasonality; development stages of crops; flood risk; annually expected damage.