Abstract

VILLARREAL-MACES, Silvio Gustavo  and  DIAZ-VIERA, Martín Alberto. Geostatistical estimation of the spatial distribution of mean monthly and mean annual rainfall in Nuevo León, Mexico (1930-2014). Tecnol. cienc. agua [online]. 2018, vol.9, n.5, pp.106-130.  Epub Nov 24, 2020. ISSN 2007-2422.  https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2018-05-05.

Considering the strong spatial variability of precipitation in the state of Nuevo León, Mexico, geostatistical techniques such as ordinary kriging and stochastic simulations were applied to estimate the spatial distribution of annual and seasonal mean precipitation from 1930 to 2014. The data set corresponds to 95 weather stations with at least 25 years of records and includes neighboring stations of the NOAA and states bordering Nuevo León. Application of a systemic approach enabled establishing isotropic and anisotropic models (variograms) to represent the spatial dependence of rainfall data. Estimations and simulations were obtained by applying modeled variograms. In order to assess the estimation quality, a cross-validation technique was applied. Considering the spatial variability and data quality, the estimation results are consistent with the observed seasonal rainfall patterns corresponding to north and northeastern Mexican climatic regions.

Keywords : Geostatistics; spatial estimation; rainfall; kriging; simulations; anisotropy; Nuevo León.