Abstract

MEDINA-GARCIA, G. et al. Influence of climate change on thermal requirements of cactus pear (Opuntia spp.) in Central-Northern of Mexico. Revista bio ciencias [online]. 2021, vol.8, e1007.  Epub Oct 04, 2021. ISSN 2007-3380.  https://doi.org/10.15741/revbio.08.e1007.

In Mexico, cactus pear (Opuntia spp.) crop has a strong cultural tradition. This country is considered the origin center and domestication of the genus Opuntia. In the north-central of the country, on average, more than 45, 000 ha are annually harvested. Although cactus pear is a tolerant species to adverse environmental conditions, its productivity can be negatively affected by biotic and abiotic factors during its development. The objective of this work was to know the effect of climate change on the thermal range of cactus pear grown in Central-North Mexico. A historical analysis was done on the number of hour variation with temperature inside and outside of the cactus pear thermal range. A similar analysis was done for the 2030, 2050, and 2070 climate scenarios on Representative Concentration Routes (RCP, for its acronym in English) 4.5 and 8.5. Climate change will have little effect on the number of hours with average annual temperature in the optimal range for cactus pear development (14 to 19 ° C) and on the number of hours with an average temperature in January for the optimal range (10 a 14 °C). In the first case, the cultivated area with that temperature (14 a 19 °C) would decrease only by 4 % and 15.4 % for 2070 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In the second one, the cultivated area with that optimum temperature (10 a 14 °C) would increase by 9.9 % and 13.2 % for 2070 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

Keywords : Opuntia spp.; global warming; RCP; hourly temperature.