Abstract

NAJERA GONZALEZ, A.; CARRILLO GONZALEZ, F.M.  and  NAJERA GONZALEZ, O.. Proposal of climate variability indicators with monthly data applied to warm climates on coastal zones of Mexico. Revista bio ciencias [online]. 2022, vol.9, e1173.  Epub Apr 12, 2024. ISSN 2007-3380.  https://doi.org/10.15741/revbio.09.e1173.

Studying climate variations over time is one way to observe signs of climate change in different areas. Variations are generally analyzed and presented descriptively, which is a problem when integrating climate variability as an element of climate change vulnerability studies. Although validated indices of climate variability exist internationally, these use daily data values, so it is a challenge to apply them in Mexico, where most of the available climate data are monthly compiled. Therefore, this research aimed to propose a list of functional indicators from monthly data to represent climate variability in an index. As a case study for validation, we choose a fragment of the Pacific Coastal Plain, a warm climate zone in the northwest of the country. The method consisted of conceptual analysis (choice of dimensions from references research) and operational analysis (definition of indicators and statistical validation process). We obtained 24 indicators, grouped into six variables and four dimensions 1) climate extreme, 2) climate anomalies, 3) natural climate variability teleconnection, and 4) long-term climate change. According to the case study results, 1980-1989 and 2010-2018 were the most variant periods concerning the average. The resulting indicators are expected to be useful in future vulnerability assessment studies.

Keywords : climate change; climate variation index; Pacific Coastal Plain; vulnerability.

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