Abstract

PALOMEQUE-DE LA CRUZ, Miguel Á. et al. Analysis of land use change in an urban ecosystem in the drainage area of the Grijalva river, Mexico. Rev. Chapingo ser. cienc. for. ambient [online]. 2017, vol.23, n.1, pp.105-120. ISSN 2007-4018.  https://doi.org/10.5154/r.rchscfa.2016.03.018.

The land use change was analyzed based on the effect of the urban growth of Villahermosa city, Tabasco, on arboreal vegetation and aquatic ecosystems. A multitemporal analysis was carried out using the Land Change Modeler for Ecological Sustainability and the CrossTab module of IDRISI Selva® software and change rates were calculated. According to the results, for almost three decades (1984-2008), a total of 4,008 ha of land occupied by arboreal vegetation and 289 ha of wetland were lost, due to the accelerated growth of grasslands and urban areas. Stochastic transition models (Markov chains and cellular automata) projected a loss of 1,171 ha of arboreal vegetation and 247 ha of wetland between 2008 and 2030. This trend is likely to be sustained by the relentless growth of grassland and urban area.

Keywords : Woodlands; wetlands; urban growth; Markov chain; cellular automata.