Abstract

ESQUIVEL-ARRIAGA, Gerardo et al. Hydrological modeling of a basin in Mexico’s arid northern region and its response to environmental changes. Ing. agric. biosist. [online]. 2017, vol.9, n.1, pp.3-18.  Epub Aug 28, 2020. ISSN 2007-4026.  https://doi.org/10.5154/r.inagbi.2016.12.008.

A basin’s hydrological services are becoming increasingly important due to the scarcity of water in many regions of the world. The aim of this research was to evaluate the impact of variations in climate patterns on runoff from the Sextín River basin using the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) hydrological model. The hydrological scheme was developed with vector and raster cartographic information, along with land-use, vegetation, climatological and hydrometric data of the study area. Model parameterization and calibration covered the period from 1971 to 2004. The model’s predictive performance was evaluated by NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency), % BIAS and R2, obtaining values of 0.81, 12.1 and 0.81, respectively. Future regionalized climate change scenarios were generated with the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) on the basis of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B (rapid economic growth) and A2 (continuously increasing population) climate change scenarios, for the years 2020s (2010-2039) and 2050s (2040-2069). A possible mean annual increase of 1 °C, both for the maximum and minimum temperature, was observed in both analyzed periods. Increased precipitation and basin runoff were also projected in the regionalized climate scenarios. The information generated in this study can be useful for hydrological planning and management of the basin.

Keywords : runoff; climate change; management; cartographic information..

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