Abstract

GARZA-LOPEZ, Miriam et al. Calakmul como refugio de Swietenia macrophylla King ante el cambio climático. Bot. sci [online]. 2016, vol.94, n.1, pp.43-50. ISSN 2007-4476.  https://doi.org/10.17129/botsci.500.

The suitable climate habitat modeling for the potential distribution of species is a powerful tool to project the impacts of climate change and to suggest management measures that may mitigate its negative effects. The objectives of this study were: (1) To determine the potential distribution of Swietenia macrophylla primarily for the Yucatan Peninsula, México and for Guatemala, Belize and eastern Honduras, and (2) to suggest management actions for recoupling the contemporary populations to their suitable climate habitat by the decade centered in the year 2030. Geographical records for S. macrophylla were obtained from the Mexican National Forest and Soil Inventory and the grids for contemporary (average 1961-1990) and future (decade centered on 2030), with intermediate greenhouse-effect gas concentration scenarios (6.0 W/m2). Potential distribution under the contemporary and future climate was modeled using MaxEnt. For the decade of 2030 it is projected a climatic habitat loss of 60 % in relation to contemporary distribution at the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize, and eastern Honduras. Suitable climate habitat practically disappears in Quintana Roo, moving to the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve. It is proposed to collect seed in the current distribution in Quintana Roo and planting inside the Reserve, with the purpose of conducting ex situ conservation populations, recoupling the populations to their future suitable climate.

Keywords : Climate change; climate habitat; contemporary climate; MaxEnt; Yucatan Peninsula.