Background:

Ecological niche modeling is a tool used to delimit and estimate the distribution areas of a species and represent them in the form of a map.

Hypotheses:

The ecological niche modeling and the dasometric values projected to a geographic and environmental space allow identifying potential areas for seed production.

Study species:

Pinus chihuahuana and Pinus leiophylla

Study site:

Physiographic provinces Sierra Madre Occidental, Mesa del Centro, Transmexican Volcanic Belt, Sierra Madre del Sur and the Carso Huasteco subprovince.

Methods:

Records of P. chihuahuana and P. leiophylla and environmental variables were used, which were processed with the MaxEnt algorithm. To select the potential seed areas, the dasometric data of the Biometric Forest System were used for the management of the forests of Mexico (SiBiFor ).

Results:

3,671,978 ha were estimated as highly suitable areas for P. chihuahuana in the Sierra Madre Occidental and 420,860 ha for P. leiophylla in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. The variables with the greatest contribution to the model for P. chihuahuana were the mean annual temperature and the minimum temperature of the coldest month, for P. leiophylla were mean annual temperature and vegetation. The areas with the best site quality (height-diameter relationship) for P. chihuahuana (r2 = 0.77, p < 0.01) and P. leiophylla (r2 = 0.73, p < 0.01) showed a high coefficient of determination.

Conclusions:

This study illustrates an approach in the delimitation of suitable areas with potential, which could be used for the production of seeds in Mexico.