Background:

Models to determine the habitat suitability of species is becoming important as a relevant geospatial tool in decision-making.

Hypothesis:

Modeling of current and future habitat suitability of Mexican baldcypress allows identifying potential conservation areas in Mexico.

Study species:

Taxodium mucronatum Ten.

Study site:

Mexico.

Methods:

Distribution records of Mexican baldcypress and climatic, edaphological and topographic variables were processed through the MaxEnt algorithm from where current and future areas for two distribution criteria, habitat suitability and current or riparian ecosystem were estimated, and potential conservation areas identified.

Results:

An area of 11,217,706.2 and 48,958.5 ha was estimated as potential and current habitat suitability, for two criteria for the Mexican baldcypress, respectively. The most important variable in the model was the average temperature of the coldest quarter. The model for the 2060 and 2070 scenarios forecasted a reduction of 2,989,580.9 ha, and 7,158,929.9 ha, respectively, and a reduction in current area of 12,415.3 ha, and 32,037.1 ha, respectively; sites for conservation were identified in the states of Puebla, Mexico, Guanajuato, and Chiapas.

Conclusions:

We presented a proposal for conservation and restoration activities of Mexican baldcypress based on the MaxEnt algorithm.