Abstract

LOPEZ ALEGRIA, Ariosto; RIOS, Mauricio José; FLAMENCO SANDOVAL, Alejandro  and  FARFAN GUTIERREZ, Michelle. Analysis and Modeling of the Spatial Patterns of Deforestation (2005-2025) in the La Union Micro-Watershed in the Chiapa de Corzo Municipality, Chiapas. Soc. ambient. [online]. 2018, n.18, pp.117-143. ISSN 2007-6576.

In the present study an analysis of the deforestation process was carried out and a trend model of deforestation of tropical deciduous forest (TDF) was developed for the year 2025. The cartography used corresponds to two periods: 2005-2011 (period of calibration) and 2016 (for model validation), at a scale of 1:20 000. It was found that for 2005 the TDF covered 34.2 % (8 161 ha) of the total surface of the micro-watershed La Unión, municipality Chiapa de Corzo, Chiapas. In 2016 this cover was reduced by 25.1 % (7 182 ha), that is 9.1 % less in 11 years, which represents a total of 2 168 hectares deforested, destined to other land uses. The estimated exchange rates showed high a deforestation trend: -10.1 %/year (2005-2011) and -16.6 %/year (2011-2016). It would be expected that by 2025 the TDF would represent 13.9 % (3 311 ha) of the surface in the micro-watershed, 11.2 % less than in 2016 (2 682 ha). Furthermore, the results highlight the growth of human settlements and the expansion of surface area for induced pasturelands, the latter being the land use that gained more surface area over the years.

Keywords : annualized transition matrix; DINAMICA EGO; induced pasture; monitoring land use and land cover change; trend model.