Purpose:

To design a participatory prospective process based on SSP scenarios to estimate the future vulnerability to climate change in a coastal territory taking San Blas, Nayarit, a rural area with tourist activity on the Mexican Pacific, as a case study.

Methodological design:

Based on the principles of territorial prospective, the method consisted of two sections: The development of a prospective diagnosis where a model is presented to analyze historical, current, and trend-based territorial vulnerability and the design of a participatory prospective process, which included the selection of key actors, spatial-temporal delimitation, scenario selection, and dynamics of the prospective workshop.

Results:

According to the diagnosis, the vulnerability of the area increased from a low to medium level between 2000 and 2019, and it is projected to increase to a medium-high level in 2038. The most vulnerable areas were those covered by estuarine and mangrove ecosystems. Regarding the participatory prospective methodology, a guide in the form of a workbook is presented detailing the dynamics to conduct the workshop, addressing three SSP scenarios.

Research limitations:

The main limitation was the scarcity of local-level information to analyze each of the vulnerability components in the prospective diagnosis. The application of the proposed methodology for the prospective workshop and its results will be subject to analysis in a second phase of the research.

Findings:

Ecotourism-oriented tourist activity can serve as the vehicle to drive the proposal and implementation of adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change.

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