Abstract

GRANADOS SANCHEZ, María Del Rosario; GALAN FIGUEROA, Javier  and  LEOS RODRIGUEZ, Juan Antonio. Price volatility in basic cereals and their impact in food security. Mexico, 1995-2018. Nóesis, Rev. cienc. soc. [online]. 2020, vol.29, n.58, pp.79-105.  Epub Jan 16, 2023. ISSN 2395-8669.  https://doi.org/10.20983/noesis.2020.2.4.

This document analyzes how price volatility in basic grains, rice, corn and wheat, will impact over food security. For this purpose, the market of these cereals was approached through high-variance symmetric and asymmetric models. Findings show evidence that, before a volatile international scenario, basic grain prices in a domestic level will rise, negatively rebounding in the whole transformation chain through the increase of final prices in processed products. At a social level, this scenario generates a restrictive effect over population by reducing its access to lower price foods.

Keywords : Aliment security; Agricultural prices; Granger causality; GARCH models.