Abstract

CHAVARIN RODRIGUEZ, Rubén. A twelve years story of waste of social resources: The Mexico-Toluca Interurban Train. Nóesis, Rev. cienc. soc. [online]. 2024, vol.33, n.65, pp.66-88.  Epub June 07, 2024. ISSN 2395-8669.  https://doi.org/10.20983/noesis.2024.1.4.

The general objective of this paper is to make an ex-post evaluation of the Mexico-Toluca Interurban Train project (TIMT) more than nine years after the beginning of its construction stage. The present study is based on the cost-benefit analysis approach, through which some analysis scenarios have been built and whose results are contrasted with the official project evaluations. The present research has focused on the analysis of the TIMT as a microcosm of the scarce efficiency of public investment in Mexico, resulting in a waste of social resources. According to the results of the study, the combination of delays and cost overruns (186% in nominal terms, 114% in real terms, and 90% in dollars) has configured a project (across two Federal Government Administrations) with negative social profitability, with losses valued at more than 550 million dollars, placing it in the most problematic quartile of train projects in the world.

Keywords : cost-benefit analysis; ex-post evaluation; public investment; transport projects; Latin America.