Abstract

DIAZ DOMINGUEZ, Alejandro. Mode Effects and Survey Accuracy. The Case of Nuevo León, Mexico in 2021. Rev. mex. opinión pública [online]. 2023, n.35, pp.147-171.  Epub Feb 05, 2024. ISSN 2448-4911.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fcpys.24484911e.2023.35.85554.

When analyzing survey data collected by different methods for the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Nuevo León, Mexico, it was found, in line with the literature, that the average error decreased as the election day approached, when considering a broad time horizon. In some cases, polls’ methodological characteristics also reduced the error, such as margin of error, sample size and the number of days spent in the field. However, according to the collection method used, in which probabilistic methods were relatively more accurate than the non-probabilistic ones, the average error and the estimation error per candidate showed variations in accuracy.

Keywords : Polls; state elections; public opinion; Mexico; Mosteller.