Abstract

NAJERA, Héctor; CORTES, Fernando  and  VARGAS, Delfino. One Year of Municipal Contagion of SARS.CoV-2 in Mexico: A Bayesian Spatial Hierarchical Analysis. Estud. sociol [online]. 2023, vol.41, n.123, pp.629-666.  Epub Feb 12, 2024. ISSN 2448-6442.  https://doi.org/10.24201/es.2023v41n123.2300.

This article expands the results of previous research exploring the role of social structure in the volume of infections, in both space and time. The study uses bi-weekly, municipal information over a twelve-month period in Mexico. The analysis is conducted in two phases, the first of which is based on a cross sectional hierarchical model. The second uses Bayesian methods to model the geographical proximity of municipalities to explain the spread of Covid-19. The results suggest that the spatial distribution of Covid-19 infections can be explained by the population’s geographical distribution across municipalities, social interactions, and poverty and inequality levels, rather than the intensity of the pandemic.

Keywords : Covid-19; poverty; inequality; Bayesian modelling; spatial analysis.