Abstract

CENTENO-CRUZ, Lillian  and  FLORES-ORTEGA, Miguel. Evaluation of the pension model proposed in the Social Security Act of 1997. Anál. econ. [online]. 2017, vol.32, n.81, pp.93-118. ISSN 2448-6655.

This paper evaluate the Mexican pension model supported by the law of the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) of 1997, the study review the theoretical aspects of the pension model. The principal aspects of the retirement condition are analysis by a set of scenarios with a deterministic and stochastic approach, the variables uncertainty are modelated witha stochastic process, the analysis use the Monte Carlo simulation with the projection of thirty years. The evaluation shows the Mexican pension model satisfies the ideas of Modigliani in the life cycle theory and the precepts of the Overlapping Generations Model. One of the relevant result is that the pension model partially are self-sufficiency by the population, since an important part of the workers cannotsave enough incomes to support their minimum pension and hold the liability to the State. Workers with a higher income who achieve savings that can guarantee a pension higher than a minimum wage should reduce the standard of living to adapt it to the level of income in the retirement phase that corresponds to approximately a fifth of the income that was had at the retirement time.

Keywords : pension system; retirement policies; private pensions; simulation.