Abstract

ROSA MENDOZA, Juan Ramiro de la; LUDLOW WIECHERS, Jorge  and  LEON LEON, Josefina. Balance of Payments external constrained growth in Mexico. Anál. econ. [online]. 2018, vol.33, n.83, pp.29-55.  Epub Sep 09, 2019. ISSN 2448-6655.  https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2018v33n83/delarosa.

In this paper we made some reflections about that, despite trade liberalization in Mexico, this has not led to high economic growth. A. P. Thirlwall establishes the importance of manufactured exports to generate greater economic growth. Assuming Thirlwall’s law, we establish a measurement to verify contribution of exports to economic growth efforts. The main result is that is very low the growth obtained with restriction of balance of payments, and ranges between -1 and 2 per cent. Additionally, the evolution of investment relative to gross domestic product is displayed and is performed an econometric estimation to evaluate the impact of increased investment to economic growth, finding also that the context of openness and given the economic dynamics, does not favor the investment process.

Keywords : economic growth; manufactured exports; Thirlwall’s law; investment.