Abstract

JIMENEZ GOMEZ, Adrián. Estimation of the demand for salaried workers in Mexico. Anál. econ. [online]. 2022, vol.37, n.94, pp.105-123.  Epub Apr 08, 2022. ISSN 2448-6655.  https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2022v37n94/jimenez.

A cointegration vector is estimated using the number of salaried workers reported by the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, the real GDP, and a proxy variable for the real salary for the period between the first quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2020. The estimated elasticities of demand for salaried workers with respect to GDP and to the proxy variable of real wages are 0.54 and -0.48, respectively. The fact that this labor demand is inelastic with respect to real GDP according to the estimated cointegration vector is bad news for job creation, especially in a scenario of relatively low economic growth. The impact of the increases in the minimum wage that have been granted since 2019 on the level of employment is also discussed, since these have been well above inflation. The error correction model is also reported for the variables that are not weakly exogenous.

Keywords : Labor demand; real wage; labor market; cointegration; employment; J23; C32; J38.