Abstract

RIVERO MOSQUEDA, Fernando. Analysis of the economic cycle in Mexico, 2011-2020: a perspective of the Austrian School of Economics. Anál. econ. [online]. 2022, vol.37, n.95, pp.27-46.  Epub Aug 01, 2022. ISSN 2448-6655.  https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2022v37n95/rivero.

This work has the objective to propose a mathematical analysis on the Mexican economic cycle (2011 to 2020) to illustrate the way Austrian economics, use to explain the economic cycles related to any recession. This is done by applying the Granger causality coefficient obtained through an autoregressive vector model (VAR). The former will be exposed under the hypothesies that any intervention over monetary base will impact the interest differential ratio (natural and market ratios), and this ratio will affect the economic productive process through the industrial production index. As a conclusion, this paper proves that for the period of study, in Mexico any movement in the monetary base will affect the ratio differential two months previously as an anticipation of future intervention, and at the same time this action will have an immediate impact on the industrial production index.

Keywords : macroeconomics; Praxeology; Walrasian interest; growth.

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