Abstract

CARNEIRO, Francisco Galrão  and  HENLEY, Andrew. Las reformas a la seguridad social y el comportamiento del mercado laboral en Brasil.Translated byEduardo L. Suárez. El trimestre econ [online]. 2006, vol.73, n.289, pp.87-124.  Epub Feb 07, 2023. ISSN 2448-718X.  https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v73i289.553.

The article uses aggregate time series data to estimate real wage elasticities of demand for covered and uncovered labour. The results of long-run analysis suggest that the demand for convered sector employment is more elastic tan for uncovered. So increased formal sector real wages, for example caused by increased social security contributions which are passed on through collective bargaining into higher real gross wages, will damage covered employment. Any mitigating effect on increased uncovered employment will be less, suggesting that some covered employees will be displaced from the formal labor market into unemployment. The article concludes that a low (relative) supply elasticity combined with more elastic demand elasticities suggests that policies to engineering a shift in relative supply towards covered employment will be more effective in increasing social protection, than attempts to increase demand for covered employment. However both employees and employers need to perceive that the benefits of social protection outweigh the costs. Therefore, policy should be directed towards designing efficient and effective systems of social protection available at low cost for all, rather than the current, rigid, expensive, "one size fits all" model currently in operation in Brazil.

Keywords : salario mínimo; empleo; análisis de cointegración.