Abstract

OGLIETTI, Guillermo Celso. La relación de causalidad entre el crecimiento y la IED en Argentina. ¿Pan para hoy, hambre para mañana?. El trimestre econ [online]. 2007, vol.74, n.294, pp.349-378.  Epub Nov 20, 2020. ISSN 2448-718X.

This work finds out that FDI affects negativelly economic growth. This outcome is grounded on a demand-sided growth model which includes the shrinkage effect of foreing firms surpluses repatriation. Although in one first stage FDI contributes to alleviate financial shortage, in the long run it discourages investment and growth through a diminished demand. Thus, the model captures the keynesian stress on demand stimulus, as well as the neoclassic emphasis on the financial contribution of FDI. A simple variable, the proportion of the economy under control of foreign firms, validates this hypotheses empirically for the case of Argentina, due to the concept of causality in the sense of Granger. The common praxis to test FDI flows instead of stocks in econometric analysis, may be its the reason why it’s so difficult to find a significative empirical relation between growth and FDI. In addition, the result shows that FDI displaces domestic investment, suggesting that this is one of the linkages of the negative impact.

Keywords : crecimiento económico; inversión extranjera directa (IED); teoría keynesiana; teoría neoclásica; causalidad de Granger; vectores autorregresivos; Argentina.