Abstract

CACERES, Luis René. Exportaciones, inversión y crecimiento económico en Centroamérica. El trimestre econ [online]. 2007, vol.74, n.295, pp.719-743.  Epub Nov 20, 2020. ISSN 2448-718X.

This paper investigates the relationship between exports and economic growth for the case of Guatemala and El Salvador, emphasizing the quantification of spillover effects. Cointegration vectors are estimated for each country, which includes the variables exports, GDP, public investment and private investment. It was found that one cointegration vector exists in each country. Error correction models were estimated including the error term from the other country’s cointegration vector as an indicator of “excess demand”. The cointegration vectors were re-estimated, including in each case the exports variable from the neighbor country. The existence of one cointegration vector was inferred for both countries. The paper concludes stressing that the interdependence of economic variables gives rise to an interdependence of national social policies, and arguing for the convenience of establishing a policy coordination framework on a Central American scale, with view to wards utilizing economic interdependece to impart more dynamism to economic growth.

Keywords : integración económica.