Abstract

JARAMILLO G., Patricio  and  SELAIVE C., Jorge. Especuladores en el mercado del cobre. El trimestre econ [online]. 2008, vol.75, n.300, pp.945-980.  Epub Nov 20, 2020. ISSN 2448-718X.

In the last few years, we have observed a significant boost in copper prices which has been accompanied with a larger share of non-commercial agents or speculators. In fact, long positions of speculators increased from 25% in 2002 to 47% in 2005. In this work, we build a comprehensive weekly data base with positions of speculators in the copper futures market for the period 1992-2006, to analyze its association with the level and volatility of copper prices. Our results show that speculators do not have permanent effects on the level of prices, although they play a significant role in short-term price variations. Once we explore the role in the amplitude of price fluctuations, we find a positive but no significant effect of these agents in the volatility. Based on the results, it is advisably to follow the positions of speculators to improve the understanding of short-term variations in copper and other commodity prices.

Keywords : precio del cobre; agentes especuladores; volatilidad; modelos de corrección de errores; mercado de derivados.