Abstract

GARCIA IGLESIAS, Jesús Manuel  and  PATEIRO RODRIGUEZ, Carlos. Análisis de la estrategia de política monetaria del Banco Central Europeo (1999-2005). El trimestre econ [online]. 2009, vol.76, n.301, pp.181-214.  Epub Nov 20, 2020. ISSN 2448-718X.

The main goals in this paper are firstly, to critically examine the ECB’s official monetary policy strategy concerning its three fundamental topics: the definition of price Stability, the analysis framework, and communication to the public on its decisions and achievements; and secondly, to empirically analyze its decision-making policies for the period 1999-2005, in order to confirm if these decisions taken are in fact sufficiently related to its official strategy or, on the contrary, if there is a different implicit strategy underlying claims. The empirical work to explain the interest rate setting is made by means of several approaches: calibrated, intra-temporary and inter-temporary regarding the generalized method of moments.

The conclusions are clear: the implicit inflation target is located at around 1.9%, very close to 2%, as was stated by the ECB in the evaluation of its monetary policy strategy in 2003. We contend that the approach of this institution is forward-looking on underlying inflation, and is backward-looking with regard to the business cycle, showing a certain tendency towards extending the temporary horizon in both cases. The inflation aversion coefficient value follows the Taylor principle, and, finally, the attached weight by the ECB to the economic growth on setting the interest rates is small.

Keywords : control de la inflación; regla de Taylor; estrategia de política monetaria; objetivo de inflación.