Abstract

GALETOVIC, Alexander  and  MUNOZ, Cristián M.. La elasticidad de la demanda por electricidad y la política energética. El trimestre econ [online]. 2010, vol.77, n.306, pp.313-341. ISSN 2448-718X.

Energy policy makers usually ignore the response of the demand for electricity to changing prices because they believe that the price elasticity is nil. We show that a "small" price elasticity of demand generates "large" changes in energy shortage probabilities and generation costs when the system operates near capacity for extended periods. The reason is that in the neighborhood of the system's capacity, the short run electricity supply curve is nearly vertical.

We make our point by simulating the expected operation of Chile's Central Interconnected System between 2006 and 2010, after the onset of the Argentine gas supply cuts. We show that price increases wrought by the postponement of investments in new plant and gas supply cuts, combined with a "small" monthly price elasticity of demand (0.0548 in absolute value), were enough to drastically reduce the probability of an energy shortage and return it to normal levels. Furthermore, if one ignores the response of demand to price, expected marginal costs are overestimated by 32% and expected total operation costs by 41%.

Keywords : elasticidad; abastecimiento; déficit; precios; demanda.