Abstract

FONSECA HERNANDEZ, Felipe de Jesús; GATICA ARREOLA, Leonardo A.  and  CHAVEZ MARTIN DEL CAMPO, Juan Carlos. Transferencias locales y alternancia partidista. Un estudio microeconométrico. El trimestre econ [online]. 2012, vol.79, n.313, pp.157-194. ISSN 2448-718X.

We analyze empirically the effect of local transfers (public and private ones) on the probability of partisan alternant under two approaches: first alternant and consecutive alternant between two local administrations, this in the context of political clientelism theory and public-good provision theory with electoral purposes on developing countries. With information from the 124 municipalities in the Mexican state of Jalisco we employ microeconometric techniques: duration models and discrete variable panel data models. Results obtained in the proportional hazard estimation show that private transfers were effective in order to avoid the first alternant. On the other hand, panel data estimations show that public transfers are more successful in order to deter exit in local power on the consecutive administration context.

Keywords : transferencias locales; clientelismo político; alternancia partidista; estado de Jalisco.