Abstract

NORIEGA, Antonio E.  and  RODRIGUEZ-PEREZ, Cid Alonso. Estacionariedad, cambios estructurales y crecimiento económico en México (1895-2008). El trimestre econ [online]. 2012, vol.79, n.314, pp.333-378. ISSN 2448-718X.

This paper shows that the evolution of the level of Mexico real and real per capita output between 1895 and 2008 can be adequately described through a trend stationary model, affected by 4 structural breaks, which ocurred at dates that seem to coincide with domestic institutional arrangements, wars, and financial and economic crises. These changes are modeled through logistic smooth transition functions, in which transition periods are endogenously estimated. In terms of growth rates, our results indicate that for Mexico real and real per capita GDP, there are four stationary growth paths, separated by three transition periods. For instance, for real GDP we identify the following stationary growth paths: 1895-1924, 1935-1952, 1956-1978, and 1989-2008, separated by three transition periods: 1925-1934, 1953-1955, and 1979-1988.

Keywords : producto interno bruto; crecimiento económico; estacionariedad; raíz unitaria; cambio estructural; función logística; transición suave.

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