Abstract

GALINDO, Luis Miguel; ALATORRE BREMONT, José Eduardo  and  REYES MARTINEZ, Orlando. Adaptación al cambio climático a través de la elección de cultivos en Perú. El trimestre econ [online]. 2015, vol.82, n.327, pp.489-519. ISSN 2448-718X.

The main objective of this paper is to capture climate change impact on endogenous crop choices by Peruvian farmer’s and the impacts on their expected income. The model is estimated across 110 227 farmers in Peru. The results show that both temperature and precipitation affect the selection crops. The study estimates that climate change would reduce the expected revenue per hectare in the range of 8% and 13% depending on the climate scenario. Climate change induces a reduction of conditional income for alfalfa, rice, coffee and maize (durum) and increases for potato, starchy maize, bananas and grapes for both climate models, with results mixed for cassava depending on the climate model. Rice and coffee are the crops with the greatest losses, while the native potato is the crop with the highest gain. Also, the probability of choice of maize and banana increases as temperature and precipitation increases.

Keywords : cambio climático; agricultura; adaptación.