Abstract

CERMENO, Rodolfo S.  and  RIVERA PONCE, Huver. La demanda de importaciones y exportaciones de México en la era del TLCAN. Un enfoque de cointegración. El trimestre econ [online]. 2016, vol.83, n.329, pp.127-147. ISSN 2448-718X.

In this paper we attempt to characterize Mexico’s trade flows during the NAFTA era. The import and export equations are derived from the imperfect substitute goods model of trade and are estimated with monthly data for the period 1994-2014 using Johansen’s cointegration approach. We find that all variables can be described as processes with stochastic trends and that there exists one cointegration relation for each trade equation. In both cases, the estimated long run elasticities with respect to prices and income are statistically significant and consistent with economic theory. In particular, both trade flows are inelastic with respect to their respective relative prices although these findings are consistent with the Marshall-Lerner condition. Additionally, Mexican imports are elastic with respect to real aggregate production, a fact that confirms that Mexico’s economic growth is highly dependent on imported goods. Differently than other studies, we find that Mexican exports are inelastic to industrial production in USA during this period, which implies that they have become more stable against fluctuations in the neighbor’s economy.

Keywords : import and export demand; imperfect substitute goods model of trade; unit roots; cointegration; NAFTA.