Background:

In Mexico, to help control the epidemic of overweight and obesity an integral strategy that incorporate a tax on sugar sweetened beverages and a group of food with high caloric content, including snacks was implemented since January 2014. In this paper we analyze how prices of snacks behaved after the tax and we estimate the potential impact of the price increase in the consumption.

Methods:

For the price analysis we apply a model for panel data with three scenarios and an interrupted time-series model. For estimating the potential impact of the prices increase in the consumption we develop scenarios on elasticity and tax rate. We use public information from INEGI for both analysis.

Results:

From the price analysis, results indicate that the industry transferred the tax to prices of snacks completely. Likewise results show that the tax enforced from 2014 to 2016 generated a moderate reduction in consumption. Estimates of the potential impact in the consumption indicate that a higher tax rate would generate bigger decreases in consumption and that the tax would be more effective if the demand of the snacks is elastic.

Conclusions:

Results provide information to reconsider the tax rate and alert about the need to evaluate the strategy as a whole.