Abstract

CAMPOS-VAZQUEZ, Raymundo M.; ESQUIVEL, Gerardo  and  MEDINA, Alfonso. Inflation expectations of Mexican consumers: An analysis of their magnitude and determinants, and an experimental intervention to affect them. El trimestre econ [online]. 2022, vol.89, n.355, pp.719-753.  Epub Dec 02, 2022. ISSN 2448-718X.  https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v89i355.1331.

In contrast to other countries, in Mexico, there is no survey to numerically measure consumer inflation expectations. This paper reports the results of the application of a simple questionnaire that aims to obtain a first approximation of these expectations. The exercise also seeks to obtain information on the process of expectations formation through a controlled intervention, as well as to investigate which products have an effect on inflation expectations the most. Four groups were randomly formed: three that received information on past, present or expected inflation, and a control group with no additional information. Consistent with the literature, the results show that people have a higher inflation expectation than specialists. The experiment also reveals that providing information does affect and reduce inflation expectations. Finally, we find that inflation expectations depend mainly on everyday consumer products, such as food.

Keywords : Inflation; expectations; experiment; households; Mexico; D90; E30; E31; E40; E50; O54.