Abstract

MORALES MARTINEZ, Daniel  and  DATHEIN, Ricardo. Industry and development: A Kaldorian analysis of Colombian economy. El trimestre econ [online]. 2024, vol.91, n.361, pp.115-157.  Epub June 21, 2024. ISSN 2448-718X.  https://doi.org/10.20430/ete.v91i361.1789.

This work analyzes the validity of Kaldor’s propositions for the Colombian economy from 1976 to 2016. The manufacturing industry is considered the key sector for economic growth because its increasing returns are higher than in other sectors. Our analyses draw on a production and employment time series for several sectors in Colombian economic activity. The results are based on the Newey-West estimator and AR(1) auto-regressive models employing Cochrane-Orcutt, Prais-Winsten, and Hildreth-Lu procedures. Our findings were consistent with a Kaldorian viewpoint and suggest that manufacturing has a major influence on economic growth; it also features technological spillovers that could stimulate productivity gains in other sectors of the Colombian economy. This goes to show the importance of encouraging industrial production in developing countries.

Keywords : Kaldor’s laws; economic growth; manufacturing industry; Colombia; C01; O14; O25.