Abstract

CRUZ CRUZ, Mario; GUERRERO ESCAMILLA, Juan Bacilio  and  GONZALEZ ROMO, Adrián. Predictive analysis of the criminal incidence in Hidalgo, Mexico. Investig. adm. [online]. 2019, vol.48, n.123. ISSN 2448-7678.

The objective is the construction of a probabilistic model (with operations research) to identify and analyze the variable that most affects the commission of crime in 84 municipalities of the State of Hidalgo, Mexico. The research method was statistical analysis using a negative binomial regression to the variables: corruption (inefficiency of authorities and poor transparency), poverty, inequality and unemployment. The results indicate that the variable that most affects the commission of the crime is corruption. The relevance of the work consists of proposing a comprehensive method of analysis that allows studying all the municipalities of the State of Hidalgo (Mexico). The limitations of the research are in its limitation to the indicated space, although it could be used in other states of the Mexican Republic.

Keywords : violence; corruption; crime; binomial regression; diagnosis; Hidalgo (Mexico).