Abstract

MENDOZA GONZALEZ, Miguel Ángel. Sensitivity and asymmetries of income shocks in Mexico's private consumption, 1995-2017. Ens. Rev. econ. [online]. 2020, vol.39, n.1, pp.21-58.  Epub Apr 12, 2021. ISSN 2448-8402.  https://doi.org/10.29105/ensayos39.1-2.

With a Postkeynesian approach, this research analyzes the over-sensitivity and asymmetries of income shocks of private consumption and its unbundling into durable, semi-durable, non-durable goods and services in Mexico for the period 1995-2017. To estimate over-sensitivity to income, cointegration methodologies from Johansen-Juselius are used and the FMOLS estimation method without endogeneity bias of Phillips and Hansen. And, for the asymmetries, this study applies the tests of Seo and Hansen-Seo of cointegration with multiple regimes (threshold-cointegration) and threshold vector error correction model (threshold-VECM) with multiple regimes of Seo. The results show the existence of over-sensitivity of private consumption and durability for most of the goods (national and imported) and low-level asymmetric behaviors consistent with a scenario of economic crisis.

Keywords : over-sensitivity of consumption; asymmetries to income shocks; threshold-cointegration; threshold-VECM models; TVECM.