Resumen

GARCIA GUERRERO, Víctor Manuel. Analysis of the Assumptions of International Migration in Mexican Population Projections 2001-2050 and 2006-2050. Estud. demogr. urbanos [online]. 2014, vol.29, n.2, pp.229-256. ISSN 2448-6515.

Several prospective exercises consider that the projection of migration is linked to the presumption of success in various specific economic goals. This paper therefore analyzes the projection assumptions referring to this demographic component by linking them to the theoretical framework and the political-economic context. It analyzes the sources quoted in the methodological document and the literature related. Some of the findings indicate that the prospective exercises examined assume sustained growth of 5% during the first decade of the 21st century, whereby net migration would grow at a constant annual rate of nearly 0.22. This assumption is directly linked to the expectations of the political and economic situations of the first two Mexican governments in the 21st century and to the economic growth achieved during the last five years of the 20th century. In order to increase the reliability of its results, the use of stochastic techniques is proposed to accurately measure the uncertainty associated with migration and thereby increase the objectivity of its projection.

Palabras llave : projection of international migration; projection assumptions; international migration; population projections; economics and demography.

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