Resumen

MARTINEZ LEDESMA, Marco Ulises; JIMENEZ PRECIADO, Ana Lorena  y  VENEGAS MARTINEZ, Francisco. A proposed thermal map of the Mexican financial system with early warnings of instability. Anál. econ. [online]. 2022, vol.37, n.94, pp.125-142.  Epub 08-Abr-2022. ISSN 2448-6655.  https://doi.org/10.24275/uam/azc/dcsh/ae/2022v37n94/martinez.

This research developed a heat map of the Mexican financial system to identify its vulnerabilities. The proposed methodology extends that used by Bank of Mexico (Banxico), and its advantages are: 1) the number of variables is reduced to those originally used by Banxico (from 58 to 23) discarding redundant variables; 2) 22 of the 23 variables are available on public platforms; and 3) the category of “risk appetite” is the item that generates the greatest instability; 4) it generates early warnings of overdue loans and the import index; the latter indicator may have repercussions on Banxico's inflation target. It also discusses how the identified risk factors can be magnified by COVID-19. Finally, the proposed thermal map is novel due to the generation of early warnings, in addition to the fact that such a proposal allows the detection of additional risk elements to those indicated by the Central Bank.

Palabras llave : Financial stability; heat map; macroeconomic risk; financial leverage; risk appetite; E44; E58; G12; G21; G28.

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