Resumen

RODRIGUEZ-MARIN, Mauro. Currency Prediction Income from International Tourism in Mexico. Investig. adm. [online]. 2024, vol.53, n.133, 00006.  Epub 20-Mayo-2024. ISSN 2448-7678.  https://doi.org/10.35426/iav53n133.06.

The objective is to understand how international tourism has contributed to the Mexican economy and to predict its future development, considering the impact of global events and travel trends. A quantitative research method is employed, using the ARIMA model to analyze and project income from international tourism. Data from 2010 to 2023, obtained from BANXICO, are analyzed. The results show a seasonal pattern in income, with notable growth from 2014 until before the pandemic. A significant recovery is anticipated from 2023, with an increase of 17.4% in the first half compared to 2022. The findings indicate that the ARIMA (1,1,2) (1,1,0) model is the most suitable for predicting income from international tourism in Mexico. Continuous growth in foreign exchange income is projected until 2026.

The originality of this study lies in its focus on international tourism as a key source of foreign exchange income for Mexico, using an advanced predictive model and considering the impact of recent global events.

The limitations include the inherent uncertainty in long-term projections and the reliance on historical patterns and trends, which may not capture future structural changes. The conclusions show that international tourism is a vital economic engine for Mexico, with a sustained growth trend. The ARIMA model provides an effective tool for predicting future income, crucial for strategic planning in the tourism sector. However, it is essential to consider the limitations of the model and the need for periodic updates to adapt to changes in the global environment.

Palabras llave : International Tourism; Predictive Model ARIMA; COVID-19; Demand.

        · resumen en Español     · texto en Español     · Español ( pdf )